In the last years of the Porfirio Diaz dictatorship, Bishop Banegas y Galvan of Querétaro made the following observation, inteded to chasten the wealthy in Mexico: “You rich men, there is no other way open: either you must open your hearts to charity and reduce the hours of work and increase wages, or you are accumulating hatred and resentment . . . and your riches and yourselves will be buried.” It isn't like we're talking about a flood of Liberation Theology in Mexico in 1900 - even the very conservative Catholic church recognized a disaster coming down the pike when they saw it.

The recent disaster in the Pena Nieto campaign for the presidency of Mexico has given Mexicans another taste of Porfirian-style disdain (let's face it, it is pura PRI-ista, but a historian has to eat, no?). In response the mocking that fluff-boy PN got for his inability to talk about books that have shaped his life, PN's daughter re-tweeted a comment saying "hello to all the idiots in the proletariate that only know how to crticize those they envy." No shocker that a PRI-bot has created a nasty well of anti-worker / anti-peasantry / anti-most-people-in-Mexico sentinment in his home. This is a dangerous time for the PRI to be engaged in such hijinks. With violence in Mexico beyond intolerable levels making the PAN non-viable in 2012, there could be a political response to dig AMLO's credibility out of the ground and "bury" the men of wealth ... and their petty daughters.

Lest the US get smug, spend five minutes on Faux News or looking at the pictures of the Wells Fargo "Homeless" themed party of foreclosure and PN's daughter looks down-right charitable.

Really The Worst Mexico Can Do?

I understand some folks are still steamed at Calderon about the '06 election, under some delusion that the PRD's pedos no huelen. I was even there in California when the crowd gasped at Cuauhtemoc Cardenas when he suggested AMLO had lost the election and that folks needed to just get over it. At the time I was mildly amused by Cardenas... but now I find I probably agree with him. Why? La Barbie.

With the arrest of the fairly washed up former drug princepin known as "La Barbie," the blogosphere and the news folks are up in a fluster again about how "Calderon's" drug war / US proxy war in Mexico is destroying the country. Is it so long ago that the indie media (of which I am generally a fan), and the correspondents of the mainstream were all over one of Mexico's truly "bad guy" presidents Carlos Salinas de Gortari for NOT doing enough to go after the cartel butchers? At the end of the day I am no big fan of the PAN or Calderon... not beyond their presence starting a little competition in the Mexican political market. However, Eddie Valdez (La Barbie) did some truly rotten things to both Mexican and US citizens for which he needs to do some serious (life) jail time. Until Mexico and the US either A) invent a time machine that goes back to 1930 and changes narcotics policy; B) they work out an economic system that legitimizes all narcotics and black market items while simultaneously creating a total global free market where everything is legal and offer amnesty for crimes committed in the past by "alternative economy" types; C) they go back to the 1970s model of ignoring narcotics trafficking THEN we have to deal with a reality where a president serious about law enforcement regarding a truly brutal sector of society needs to be engaged.

On both the right and the left the conversation about the rule of law in Latin America has been heated... and in one direction: that it is a cure for Latin American ills. But the slaughter we see in Mexico is a direct result of that transition to the rule of law. So I have to ask, do you really want it or not? And if your answer is to simply change the laws to fit the criminals (make narcotics legal), then is that really the rule of law? And if not narcotics, what is next? At the end of the day this war in Mexico is and will continue to be brutal and Calderon will continue to be mediocre president at best. And while we know he is not the best Mexico can do, is he really the worst?

Technocrats vs. Dinosaurs - in the PRD

This morning's Excelsior has Jesus Ortega, head of the PRD, taking another step back from AMLO. "He has his plans, we have ours." Hmmm.... Well, it seems those plans will include wunderkind Marcelo Ebrard, of whom Ortega says:

“Marcelo ha hecho su mejor esfuerzo; está haciendo un gran trabajo y con buenos resultados, que ayudarán para la votación nacional.”

Well, Marcelo has a soap star wife, Mexico City in his pocket, and Calderon-Zedillo nerd chic going for him already, and it seems that the leadership of the PRD has found its attempted antidote to AMLO fever - already on the decline. Unlike Cardenas, however, I'm not sure we'll see a protracted period of public dormant reflection and back-room wrangling before bowing out - dollars to donuts AMLO makes a fight out of PRD nomination and attempts to make a (failed) third party stand. Of course, predictions are like the old saying "if grandma had different plumbing she'd be grandpa."

And a final note on that nerd chic ... my bet is that Mexicans might be more willing to climb in with the seminarian looking boy than the cacique (consider Labastida!). Then again, that doesn't explain Fox, who had bar room bad boy written all over his face like a set of M13 tattoos. So I'm making my calls early - 3 years in advance. Alberto Cardenas vs. Marcelo Ebrard, with Marcelo coming out on top if AMLO puts a lid on it. Tune in July of 2012 so you can make fun of how horribly wrong my early picks went.