Technocrats vs. Dinosaurs - in the PRD

This morning's Excelsior has Jesus Ortega, head of the PRD, taking another step back from AMLO. "He has his plans, we have ours." Hmmm.... Well, it seems those plans will include wunderkind Marcelo Ebrard, of whom Ortega says:

“Marcelo ha hecho su mejor esfuerzo; está haciendo un gran trabajo y con buenos resultados, que ayudarán para la votación nacional.”

Well, Marcelo has a soap star wife, Mexico City in his pocket, and Calderon-Zedillo nerd chic going for him already, and it seems that the leadership of the PRD has found its attempted antidote to AMLO fever - already on the decline. Unlike Cardenas, however, I'm not sure we'll see a protracted period of public dormant reflection and back-room wrangling before bowing out - dollars to donuts AMLO makes a fight out of PRD nomination and attempts to make a (failed) third party stand. Of course, predictions are like the old saying "if grandma had different plumbing she'd be grandpa."

And a final note on that nerd chic ... my bet is that Mexicans might be more willing to climb in with the seminarian looking boy than the cacique (consider Labastida!). Then again, that doesn't explain Fox, who had bar room bad boy written all over his face like a set of M13 tattoos. So I'm making my calls early - 3 years in advance. Alberto Cardenas vs. Marcelo Ebrard, with Marcelo coming out on top if AMLO puts a lid on it. Tune in July of 2012 so you can make fun of how horribly wrong my early picks went.

Agriculture and Cardenas...Alberto, that is.

Sol de San Luis reports that the CNC is planning on organizing a large protest march on January 30th to demand more resources for Mexican agriculture. With Mexican agriculture continuing its growth during hard times (4.9% - better than the 1.8% growth the nation is showing) and a decline in ag exports from power house Argentina (Mexican grains and cattle?), Mexico may be in a position to help farmers - maybe. Secretary of Agriculture, Alberto Cardens Jimenez met last year at this time with Canadian minister Gerry Ritz and firmed up some resolve on the part of the Canadians to allow more Mexican products into Canada (there was a trade imbalance of about 200million CD). That might help him overcome the problem of importing US corn. Then again, he did go after US meat packers at the end of 2008, so he could certainly play the "I stood up to the US card if needed.

So, is the CNC move one that will allow Cardenas to swoop in, play the hero, and get set up for the 2012 race? Or, is the CNC move one that will work on the part of the PRI (which still has very strong ties to the union) to start picking off possible PAN replacements for Calderon? I lean toward the latter, but Beto was a shrewd player in Jalisco, and I'm betting that when all is said and done he'll still be the guy to watch in 2012. And since I'm not really convinced that Amlo is dead, the PAN may need as strong a rural candidate as it can get to balance the PRDista grip on DF.