Oil, Lat Am, Dependency, and Baku.

My mother-in-law never knows what to get me for Christmas. I ask for nothing, she insists she has to send something, and I think we have made a nice compromise: a renewed subscription to National Geographic every year. It makes for good light reading and the kids like the pictures. However....

This issue (September) looks at the development of a railroad system across the Caucuses from Azerbaijan to Turkey. It reads, in short, like a cientificos lecture by Justo Sierra. A little tyranny (in Azerbaijan) brings development and order - all based on the development of a single market export - oil. This lines up nicely with the month's topics in my modern lat am course: Progress and Order... and the Popular Response to It. Students are reading Todd Diacon's great work on the building of the railway in Santa Catarina in Brazil and the social stress and upheaval that such a project brings. National Geographic, for all its progressive pretensions, paints the building of a rail system through a religiously sensative area as a possible antidote to the woes of the Caucuses. Once more, I would submit that a few minutes in a Latin America class would benefit many policy makers outside of the area. Building a railroad to export a single market item in an area prone to conflict... this is totally in our tool box.

Moving on Correa? Terrorism, Indians, and Oil

Wall Street Journal reported last week that the CONAIE organization is preparing to launch into demonstrations and protest against Rafael Correa. The article was careful to point out that Correa is "left-wing" and that Correa "is facing widespread discontent and protests against his policies, amid a deteriorating political and economic environment." Hmmm. What policies?

After two days of meetings, CONAIE heads blamed the government for the breakdown of the talks, which started in October, after the death of a member of the Shuar native in a clash between police and protesters amid demonstrations against a proposed law regulating water and mining and oil activity on their lands.

Delfin Tenesaca, head of the Ecuadorian Confederation of Kichwa Nationalities, or ECUARUNARI, a CONAIE arm, told Dow Jones Newswires that indigenous people "will start to implement a plurinational state with our own rules in each of our communities."

Ok, from reading the WSJ it sounds like the Indians are looking to use their resources as they will ala Milton Friedman and these commies from Quito are swooping in and regulating the heck out of their resources. No details, and just a small quote. Let's see another take on that... .

The Latin American Herald Tribune which appears to quote extensively from actual CONAIE members has a little different POV.

In the assembly, Conaie denounced the government “for not modifying the colonial state and continuing to strengthen the neo-liberal and capitalist system, betraying the Ecuadorian people,” Santi said. “Neo-liberal” is in Latin America a term used as a slur by leftists to describe advocates of free-market, laissez-faire economic policies.

That doesn't sound like what the WSJ says or at least intimates. The CONAIE are upset because Correa isn't EZLN enough. But Chevron and the WSJ are pretty sure he's the bad guy.

What else happened earlier in the month? Ecuador was placed on financial terrorist list by the French. And earlier this year? Ecuador deepened ties to both China and Iran and ended leases on US military bases. When the only reporting I really see in the mainstream on this supposed coming revolution in Ecuador is on the pages of the Wall Street Journal after Ecuador has decided to screw the US military and Chevron, I have to encourage Correa to not fly *cough*(Torrijos)*cough* or take any cigars from strangers.

PLEASE, follow the Chevron link to see what sort of power they are throwing behind a lawsuit in Ecuador. Not eye-opening, but certainly position affirming.

Ecuador and Correa . . . oh, We Forgot About Him

While Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales have been making a big splash with the protests and elections in their country, and while Chrissy K. has been ramping up the nationalism in Argentina (oooh - there's an original trick), Rafael Correa has been slipping under the radar of most news organizations. This is a guy to watch, and since the only news organizations that seem to be paying attention to him are Bloomberg or Lloyd's List, I'm betting he's going to play a part in South America's next great drama.

His 2007 refusal to renew a US lease in Manta at the Alfaro air base and instead offer it to China was dismissed as bluster at the time, but it appears he's still moving ahead with the deal, according to Dow Jones Newswire coverage by Katerine Erazo. Manta is the closest deep water port in South America to China, and a Hong Kong based company is currently expanding the port at a brisk pace (though not fast enough for Correa who is threatening to boot the company if they don't get it done faster). Meanwhile, China has grown its crude extraction in Latin America (much of it in Ecuador) by 24%.

I'm not sure what keeps the cameras away from Correa. Perhaps as a US trained economist he doesn't have the "Indian Sexy" feel that Evo does, or the "Third World Strongman" feel of Chavez. I'm pretty sure his vocal Catholicism is a major turn off for some on the left, though I'm pretty sure why the murder of an Ecuadorian citizen in New York failed to make much of a splash.

Correa is a mixed bag - probably something that will turn out to be a healthy decision for Ecuador. While Chavez, Morales, and Kirchner are all looking like figures we have seen come and go before, Correa looks like his more pragmatic approach might give him some staying power. Let's see if he can manage to put more of a leash on big oil (including China).

At any rate, I think this could be a guy to watch - and let's hope his low profile with the world public and his high profile with business doesn't earn him a visit from some of the mechanics that worked on Torrijos' plane.